Uzbekistan's key rate may fall below 10% by 2029
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan allows for the possibility of lowering the key rate below 10% in 2027–2029.
According to Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Nodirbek Achilov, this will be possible with a sustained slowdown in inflation to the target of 5% and a reduction in inflation expectations.
At the meeting on November 4, the regulator's board considered two options: keeping the rate at 14% or reducing it to 13.5%. The majority supported the first option due to persistent inflation risks and high domestic demand.
According to the Central Bank's baseline scenario, inflation will approach 5% in the second half of 2027 and stabilize around this level in 2028–2029. If the rate is lowered, the regulator allows for a narrowing of the interest rate corridor. There is no approved schedule for reducing the rate.
