Scientists Predict Shift from El Niño to La Niña in 2027
NOAA specialists forecast a transition from a super El Niño to La Niña in the second half of 2027 following an extremely warm winter.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has published a long-term forecast for the ENSO phenomenon—the alternation of warm and cold phases in the Pacific Ocean. Ilya Vinshtein, a meteorologist and administrator of the Synoptica project, explained that statistical and dynamic models indicate a sharp phase shift.
According to calculations, the peak of the current warm event in the key Niño 3.4 region will occur between November and January. At that time, the sea surface temperature anomaly may reach approximately +2.8 °C.
After this, the ocean will begin to cool rapidly. By May-June 2027, indicators are expected to return to the neutral zone. By the end of summer and into autumn, temperatures are projected to drop to a range of -0.5 °C to -1 °C, with some statistical models suggesting a decline to -1.5 °C.
The negative anomaly, according to the forecast, will persist until the winter of 2027-2028. This will correspond to the formation of a stable cold phase of ENSO—La Niña. Such a restructuring of oceanic processes could influence the global climate: weather anomalies in different regions of the planet may change more rapidly than usual.
